Israel Votes on Netanyahu After Gaza—But Occupied Palestinians Have No Ballot
Voting opened across Israel at 7 a.m. on Tuesday, October 27, in an election that could end Benjamin Netanyahu’s long grip on power. It will not end the political order that keeps millions of Palestinians under Israeli rule without a vote in the government that dominates their lives. Reuters
More than 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to cast ballots at roughly 12,000 polling stations. They are choosing party lists for the 120-seat Knesset, not a prime minister directly. The race pits Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc against an alliance headed by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, with neither side holding a clear path to the 61 seats required to govern. AP
The election arrives after three years that remade the region. Hamas-led fighters killed about 1,200 people in Israel and took 251 hostages on October 7, 2023. Israel’s assault then flattened much of Gaza and killed about 74,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities. Israel also expanded its military reach across Lebanon and Syria and fought wars with Iran, including alongside the United States. Reuters
For many Israeli voters, Tuesday’s ballot is a reckoning over Netanyahu’s responsibility for the security collapse of October 7, his refusal to establish a state commission of inquiry, his attempted judicial overhaul and his alliance with ultra-nationalist and religious parties. For Netanyahu, the campaign has rested on wartime leadership, survival and his relationship with US President Donald Trump. AP
But the electorate stops at the legal boundary of Israeli citizenship. Palestinian citizens of Israel can vote, and their turnout could decide which bloc gets the first chance to form a coalition. Palestinians living under occupation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and Palestinians in Gaza living with the consequences of Israeli military power, do not choose the Knesset that authorizes settlements, raids, closures and war. Reuters
That exclusion is not abstract. In the days before the vote, the Israeli military sealed entrances to Hebron during a major West Bank operation launched after a shooting that killed two Israeli soldiers. Hebron’s municipality said more than 2,600 Palestinians were displaced. Crossings into Israel remained closed through election day, while Israeli politicians competed over who could promise the stronger security response. AP
Netanyahu’s possible defeat would matter. It could end the career of Israel’s dominant politician, reshape the state’s institutions and remove far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from cabinet. A new government could curb settler violence and slow the acceleration of land seizures and outpost expansion in the occupied West Bank. AP
It would not necessarily produce a break with the machinery of occupation. Eisenkot, like nearly all Jewish-led parties with a realistic chance of governing, opposes a two-state settlement. Israel’s principal blocs differ sharply over Netanyahu’s character and methods while sharing core positions that deny Palestinians sovereignty. The election offers Israelis a choice over who runs the system, not Palestinians a choice over the system ruling them. Reuters
The arithmetic will be brutal. Parties must win at least 3.25 percent of the national vote to enter parliament. A handful of seats can turn a small religious, nationalist or Arab-led party into a kingmaker. Netanyahu may again need Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Eisenkot would need an unusually broad anti-Netanyahu coalition, potentially dependent on a strong turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Reuters
Polls close at 10 p.m. local time, when television exit polls will offer the first indication of the result. The final tally is expected by October 30 and official results on November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then consult party leaders and choose the person he believes most likely to build a coalition; that nominee can have up to 42 days. Reuters
So Tuesday may decide Netanyahu’s political fate without settling who governs. It may also change Israel’s government without changing the reality imposed on Palestinians. The most consequential verdict of this election could be that the leader is replaceable while the structure he entrenched survives.
Comments