Netanyahu Loses Ultra-Orthodox Ally as Eisenkot Gains Coalition Edge
Benjamin Netanyahu’s fight to remain Israel’s prime minister suffered a decisive setback Thursday when United Torah Judaism refused to recommend him for another term, while the Arab-led Ra’am party backed former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. The twin moves gave Eisenkot a clear advantage in the formal consultations that will determine who receives the first chance to build Israel’s next government.
The shift does not yet remove Netanyahu from office. It does, however, break the political machinery that kept him in power for years: a durable alliance between Likud, ultra-Orthodox parties and the nationalist right. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister, but he no longer controls a parliamentary majority and now faces a rival with more declared recommendations before President Isaac Herzog.
Israel’s October 27 election produced no clean governing bloc. Likud won 27 seats, the most of any party, but Netanyahu’s wider religious-nationalist camp secured only 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Eisenkot’s four-party Jewish-led opposition bloc won 48. The unprecedented 19 seats captured by two Arab-led parties made those parties central to the coalition contest rather than marginal spectators.
Ra’am’s eight incoming lawmakers endorsed Eisenkot on Wednesday. On Thursday, United Torah Judaism — a longstanding Netanyahu ally — declined to recommend any candidate. The party’s break reflects a deep dispute over Netanyahu’s failure to secure a law exempting ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from military service. A relationship once presented as permanent has now collided with the material demands of its own constituency.
Eisenkot’s numerical edge remains fragile. He has ruled out forming a government with the Arab-led parties whose recommendations strengthen his claim to the mandate. Other parties in his camp also oppose governing with ultra-Orthodox factions. The contradiction is stark: the votes that can dislodge Netanyahu are not automatically the votes that can sustain an Eisenkot cabinet.
Herzog must decide by November 11 which lawmaker has the best chance of forming a coalition. The Basic Law does not require him to choose the leader of the largest party or even the candidate with the most endorsements. He must judge who can assemble at least 61 lawmakers. The chosen candidate normally receives 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to reach that threshold.
Herzog has urged the parties to avoid another election. “Any reasonable person need only look at the security and diplomatic challenges before us, at the changing region around us, and remember the issues tearing us apart from within, to understand that an immense responsibility rests upon us,” he said during the consultations.
That appeal carries unusual weight. Israel is still fighting in Gaza, occupying territory in southern Lebanon, and navigating the regional consequences of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. A caretaker government can manage daily administration, but it lacks the political mandate to settle the country’s deep disputes over war, conscription, Palestinian rights and the future of the judiciary.
Netanyahu has also tried to cloud the result by citing an investigation into possible vote tampering and accusing Arab parties of stealing the election. The Central Elections Committee said the integrity of the vote was not compromised. Its chair, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, warned political leaders against shaking public trust and stressed the democratic necessity of a peaceful transfer of power.
The prime minister’s far-right allies have escalated the confrontation. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and others have demanded the arrest and interrogation of Arab party leaders. Those threats seek to turn historic Arab turnout into a criminal suspicion rather than accept it as an electoral fact.
The immediate question is whether Herzog gives Eisenkot the first mandate. The larger question is whether Israel’s anti-Netanyahu majority can become a government without excluding the Arab voters who made that majority possible. Thursday’s recommendations weakened Netanyahu. They did not resolve the structural conflict at the heart of the next coalition.
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